A Novel Approach to Ship Operational Risk Analysis Based on D-S Evidence Theory

Abstract

In view of the complex environment in which risk analysis of ship accidents is carried out, and the uncertainty and ambiguity of experts’ judgements in risk analysis, this paper proposes a risk analysis method based on intuitionistic fuzzy linguistic set and D-S evidence theory. Intuitionistic fuzzy entropy is applied to determine the weight of each criterion, and then the risk value of m for each attribute is aggregated based on D-S evidence theory. In terms of expert information aggregation, expert weights are firstly obtained based on evidence distance and fuzzy entropy, and then experts’ judgements for attributes are merged via D-S theory to yield the risk ranking of each attribute. Finally, a cruise ship collision scenario is provided as a case to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method. The result validates that D-S evidence theory is an efficient tool for ship risk analysis.