Does parents’ retirement influence the fertility intentions of subsequent generations among internal migrant populations? Evidence from China

Abstract

Objectives The fertility health of the migrating population has attracted significant attention. This article examines the impact of parental retirement on the fertility intentions of the offspring among the internal migrant population. Methods This study utilizes the mandatory retirement age system as an exogenous shock within a fuzzy regression discontinuity (FRD) experimental design to investigate the influence of parents’ retirement on the fertility intentions of their migrant offspring and potential mechanisms. Results The research findings indicate that parents’ retirement significantly reduces the fertility intentions of the migrant population by 34.4%. Mechanism analysis attributes this adverse effect to the reduction in intergenerational wealth transfer due to parent’s retirement. As the family’s economic situation worsens, the negative impact of retirement on fertility intentions becomes more pronounced. The childcare support mechanism provided by retired grandparents can partially offset the adverse effects of the income mechanism. Conclusions This study provides recommendations for enhancing policies related to delaying retirement age and childcare.