The Effect of 3°C Global Warming on Hail Over Europe

Abstract

Hail severely impacts humans, crops, and infrastructure. Quantifying future hail trends is extremely challenging due to the complex dynamic, thermodynamic, and microphysical processes behind severe convective storms. Here, we combine a km-scale convection-permitting regional climate model and an online hail diagnostic to quantitatively assess changes in hail frequency in Europe imposed by a (Formula presented.) C global warming level. Results show increases in summer hail frequency in northeastern Europe and decreases to the southwest for intense and severe hail days, related to changes in low-tropospheric water vapor content, convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. Small hail days generally decline across continental Europe, due to increased melting of hailstones with higher melting level height. The physical-based simulation approach captures convection and hail processes consistently, providing a solid basis for assessing the socioeconomic implications of hail and its trends with global warming.