Comparing Three Profoundly Influential Prognostic Scores in Cirrhotic Patients with Acute-on-Chronic-Liver Failure Admitted to the ICU: Prediction of One-Month Mortality—A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Acute-on-chronic-liver failure (ACLF) demonstrates high short-term mortality rates and usually requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission. Accurate prognostication of these patients is pivotal for timely referral for liver transplantation. The superiority of CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF lactate, and NACSELD-ACLF scores in Asian patients with ACLF admitted to an ICU remains inconclusive. Aims: To compare the predictive performance of CLIF-C ACLF, CLIF-C ACLF lactate, and NACSELD-ACLF scores for one-month mortality. Methods: 276 consecutive cirrhotic patients with ACLF admitted to ICU were enrolled. The prognostic values for one-month mortality were assessed by AUROC analysis. Results: The primary cause of cirrhosis in this cohort was alcohol abuse (56.5%). AUROC analysis (95% confidence intervals) demonstrated that CLIF-C ACLF lactate [0.802 (0.747–0.856)] outperformed both CLIF-C ACLF [0.791 (0.733–0.848)] and NACSELD-ACLF [0.673 (0.606–0.740)] in predicting one-month mortality. However, no statistically significant difference was observed between the predictive abilities of CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF lactate. Conclusions: In critically ill cirrhotic patients with ACLF admitted to the hepatology ICU, CLIF ACLF-lactate outperformed CLIF-C ACLF and NACSELD-ACLF in predicting one-month mortality. Nevertheless, no statistically significant difference was observed between CLIF-C ACLF and CLIF-C ACLF lactate. Larger-scale multi-center prospective studies are warranted to validate these results.