A simplified Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme from 1 August

Abstract

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University has issued seasonal forecasts for Atlantic basin hurricane activity in early August since 1984. This paper proposes a simplified scheme, using a combination of two surface predictors selected from the newly-developed Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) as well as a dynamical forecast for El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). These three predictors in combination explain approximately 72% of the cross-validated variance in post-1 August Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity over the hindcast period from 1982-2010. While uncertainties in the data grow as one goes back further in time, all three predictor correlations remain significant with NTC when tested on data from 1900-1981. These predictors are also shown to correlate with August-October physical features across the Atlantic Main Development region known to impact hurricane activity. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.