Industry 4.0 as a ‘sudden change': the relevance of long waves of economic development for the regional level

Abstract

While the rapid proliferation of the Industry 4.0 concept suggests that it brings about major economic change, the concept lacks a socio-economic foundation of change. In this context, the paper raises three questions: First, how sudden does the change brought about by Industry 4.0 occur, and, second, does it make a difference if it is conceived as sudden or not? Using a model of long waves of economic development and the concept of general purpose-technologies it is argued that much of the change brought about by Industry 4.0 is not of a sudden nature but largely represents the roll-out of the prevailing techno-economic paradigm, and that digitalization and artificial intelligence have the potential to trigger of a next long wave. The third question asks for possible implications of the long-wave perspective for adapting to an upcoming paradigm at the regional level. A major conclusion is that policy measures ought to reach beyond traditional innovation and technology-related policies and be implemented in the appropriate phase of a long wave.