Shoreline Erosion Assessment Modelling for Sohar Region: Measurements, Analysis, and Scenario

Abstract

The extended coastlines of Oman have been forced to change in the last few decades because of urbanization development or by natural disasters. Recently, Oman has suffered from a couple of tornados and cyclones, e.g. Cyclone Gonu on June 1, 2007, making the changes even much more dynamic. In order to protect the coastal regions infrastructure, an accurate estimation of shoreline erosion is required. This research paper presents an assessment of shoreline erosion magnitudes using field measurements coupled with Multiple Linear Regressions Models (MLR) to predict future changes. Inverse Distance Weighing and Kriging interpolation methods have been applied in order to visualize shoreline variations from gathered data prospective. The field measurements for the shoreline were taken at 19 different points, the space between the points in a range of 500–700 m approximately. The first field measurements were taken on 19th 20th 21st of June, 2016 while the second field measurements were taken on 14th 15th 16th of November 2016. Pearson correlation shows a strong relationship between the first and the second field trips with an average of 0.83. This significant relationship ensures the applicability of MLRs to project future changes on the shorelines. The results of the MLRs showed severe negative volumetric shoreline erosion with an average of 5.2 m/year with some exceptions at the catchment outlets.