Projecting Changes to Coastal and Estuarine Ecosystem Goods and Services-Models and Tools

Abstract

Coasts and estuaries provide an abundance of ecosystem goods and services (EGS) to humans worldwide. Models that track the supply, demand, and change in EGS within these ecosystems provide valuable insights that have applications in the context of land-use planning, decision-making, and coastal community engagement. However, developing models for use in coastal and estuarine ecosystems is challenging given the multitude and variability of potential input variables, largely due to their dynamic nature and extensive use. Models that can incorporate scenarios of environmental change to forecast changes in EGS endpoints are highly valuable to decision-makers, but only a minor proportion of available EGS models offer this utility. In this chapter, we describe the domain of models most useful to coastal decision-makers, present models at multiple scales that can predict EGS changes, and examine specific examples that epitomize this utility. We also highlight common difficulties in modeling coastal and estuarine EGS and propose suggestions for integrating EGS models into the coastal management decision-making process during times of increasing environmental change.