Prediction of adverse events in stable non-variceal gastrointestinal bleeding using machine learning

Abstract

Clinical risk-scoring systems are important for identifying patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) who are at a high risk of hemodynamic instability. We developed an algorithm that predicts adverse events in patients with initially stable non-variceal UGIB using machine learning (ML). Using prospective observational registry, 1439 out of 3363 consecutive patients were enrolled. Primary outcomes included adverse events such as mortality, hypotension, and rebleeding within 7 days. Four machine learning algorithms, namely, logistic regression with regularization (LR), random forest classifier (RF), gradient boosting classifier (GB), and voting classifier (VC), were compared with the Glasgow–Blatchford score (GBS) and Rockall scores. The RF model showed the highest accuracies and significant improvement over conventional methods for predicting mortality (area under the curve: RF 0.917 vs. GBS 0.710), but the performance of the VC model was best in hypotension (VC 0.757 vs. GBS 0.668) and rebleeding within 7 days (VC 0.733 vs. GBS 0.694). Clinically significant variables including blood urea nitrogen, albumin, hemoglobin, platelet, prothrombin time, age, and lactate were identified by the global feature importance analysis. These results suggest that ML models will be useful early predictive tools for identifying high-risk patients with initially stable non-variceal UGIB admitted at an emergency department.