Analysis of rice supply determinants in North Sumatera

Abstract

The problem of rice supply is a continuous problem that continues to affect food security in North Sumatra every year. This study aims to find out the factors related to the problem of rice supply and what factors have a significant effect on rice supply. The study was conducted in North Sumatera with the consideration of a decrease in production that could interfere with food security. The results showed that several factors had a major influence on rice supply, including rice prices, rice production, rice consumption, rice imports, government rice reserves, land conversion, prices of production factors such as fertilizers, land conversion and food diversification. Some variables that have a significant effect on rice supply include North Sumatera Rice Price (NSRP), North Sumatera Harvest Area (NSHA) and North Sumatera Fertilizer Price (NSFP). Two variables that have a positive effect are NSHA and NSFP, while one variable has a negative effect, namely NSRP. Of the five variables, there are two variables that have no significant effect, namely North Sumatera Rice Consumption (NSRC), North Sumatera Cassava Price (NSCP).