A New Approach in Measuring Local Migration and Population

Abstract

This paper presents a new model for measuring local migration and population and report results of a promising pilot application to Massachusetts. This model operationalizes Ravenstein’s classic “push-pull” paradigm, which posits that local migration is determined by the area’s relative attractiveness or a compound function of distinct factors that push migrants out of the area or pull them in. The attraction factors and changes are measured using varied data sources, including decennial census migration flow data and data on group quarters and school enrollments. This model yields timely population estimates with accuracy superior to the corresponding estimates based on the Census Bureau’s methodology. Such results warrant further applications to test and refine this promising approach.