A mathematical overview of a computer simulation model of maternity histories with illustrative examples

Abstract

A mathematical overview of a stochastic computer simulation model of maternity histories is provided. Various components of human reproduction are accommodated in the model through distributions of waiting times among live births. Included in these components are distributions of age at first marriage in a cohort of women, waiting times to pregnancy for fecundable women, and the lengths of infecundable periods following live births. Probabilities that pregnancies end in either a live birth, induced abortion, or some other type of outcome are also included. Elements of renewal theory and semi-Markov processes in discrete time were the basic mathematical concepts used in the construction of the model. A brief description of an interactive software package called MATHIST, which may be used to implement the model on a computer, is also included. Four illustrative computer runs with MATHIST, pertinent to the operation of family planning programmes in Africa, are also described and discussed. © 1984 Oxford University Press.