Agricultural innovation and adaptation to climate change: Insights from US maize

Abstract

Climate change is a major threat to the global food supply, and adaptation by technological progress is essential. We show that the scope of the required innovation is challenging. Our benchmark is the estimated yield gain in US maize due to genetically engineered (GE) varieties. Extrapolated future yields, given climate projections, indicate significant negative impacts of climate change. Yield shortfalls, by the end of the century, range from 2.8 to 6.3 times the total yield gains from first-generation GE varieties. Ambitious and targeted R&D efforts, and innovation breakthroughs, may be required to offset the negative impact of climate change.