A risk assessment model for high-rise school building project in Metro Manila, Philippines

Abstract

The rapid increase of school building construction in the country was brought by the implementation of a nationwide reform in pre-university education cycle from 10 to 12 years in June 2012. The change demanded a significant increase in school buildings. However, construction of high-rise school building project is unique due to its varying characteristics as compared to other types of building construction project. Construction of such buildings depends on variables such as site, surrounding, size, structure, student population, resources and culture. As a result, it is subject to numerous risk and weakness, which invariably have significant negative impact on its overall performance. Therefore, risk assessment tools for school buildings must be modified to fit these varying characteristics. However, there are three major challenges during the planning stage of project risk management of such buildings, first is the correct identification of the sources and type of risks, second the necessary statistical information and third, the selection of methods that will successfully estimate the potential impacts and probabilities of occurrence. The study attempted to bridge this gap by using Monte Carlo Analytic Network Process (MCANP) a weighted simulation decision making model. As a result, the proposed method compared to traditional approach can quantify the error of uncertainty in the judgements through the probabilistic judgements with a confidence level of 95%. Thus, the method allows to estimate the probable value of losses and the degree of influence of each risk factor associated in high-rise school building construction in Philippines.