Did Covid-19 Change Armed Group Governance? Evidence from a Survey of Local Security Authorities in Colombia

Abstract

As the Covid-19 pandemic began, initial reports suggested that armed groups would seize the opportunity to expand their control over territory and civilians. However, drawing on an original survey of local security officials responsible for monitoring armed group behaviour in Colombia, we find little evidence of significant shifts in the presence or behaviour of political or criminal groups. Contrary to prevailing expectations, we also find that armed group governance is common in areas contested by multiple groups. Our findings shed new light on armed group adaptation to shocks, and challenge the assumption that territorial control is a prerequisite for governance.