Survival analysis of patients with COVID-19 using deep neural network and random forest techniques

Abstract

Introduction: The prediction of the survival chance of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is as important as the early detection of the coronavirus. Since patient mortality, factors may differ by location, this study concentrated on identifying the influential factors and predicting survival for COVID-19 patients using machine learning methods in Fars province, Iran. Material and Methods: The research dataset was extracted in the period January 21, 2020, to September 25, 2020, and contains 25858 hospitalized patients’ records with 51 features. These records were classified into two categories: death (label 1) and survival (label 0). The methodology of this research is CRISP standard. A comparison was made between the efficiency of two deep neural network and random forest algorithms in predicting survival. Modeling steps were done with Python language in the Google Colab environment. Results: Experimental results demonstrated that the deep neural network algorithm had better performance than random forest with accuracy, precision, recall, F-score, and receiver operating characteristic of 97.2%, 100%, 93.54%, 96.66%, and 97.9%, respectively. Based on the results of the random forest model, history of hypertension, chronic neurological disorders, chronic lung diseases, asthma, chronic kidney disease and, heart disease were the most important risk factors related to death. Conclusion: Deployment of our proposed model allows medical professionals to exercise greater caution during the treatment of patients who are most likely to die due to their medical conditions.