Estimating the Population of a Middle Eastern City Based on a Normalized Difference Built-Up Index and Urban Morphology

Abstract

The aim of this study is to introduce a method for estimating the population of a Middle Eastern city, the city of Hillah, in the absence of a census which was last conducted in 1997. The method incorporates the normalized difference built-up index and land use-land cover information to identify residential areas for four years 1987, 1997 (the last census), 2008, and 2018 using Landsat imagery. Dasymetric mapping is employed to rezone residential pixels to the city’s administrative districts or mahallahs. Mahallah populations for each year are estimated using local and historical urban morphology characteristics combined with standardized housing and household sizes. The result of this study is a range of estimates for mahallah populations, but a reasonable estimate of the city of Hillah’s population is developed. The use of historical information, urban design, and environmental data with remote sensing methods in a Middle Eastern context provides an added tool in the arsenal of population estimation techniques.