Small and Stable Pancreatic Cysts Are Reassuring During Surveillance: Results From the PACYFIC Trial

Abstract

Background: Pancreatic cysts are increasingly discovered on imaging studies performed for unrelated conditions. Currently, surveillance of these lesions poses a substantial burden on patients, and health care recourses. We hypothesized that individuals with small and stable cysts have a diminutive risk of progressing to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or pancreatic cancer (PC) that is similar to that in the general population. Methods: This nested PACYFIC-study is a collaboration among 44 centers in Europe and Northern-America, and investigates the risk of HGD and PC for different cyst sizes and growth rates in participants without baseline worrisome features (WF) or high-risk stigmata (HRS). Results: Of the 2369 PACYFIC participants, 975 met the inclusion criteria, with a mean age of 67 years (SD 13) and 65% being female. Of these, 438 individuals (45%) had a baseline small cyst size (< 15 mm), and 885 (91%) individuals had a slow growth rate (< 2.5 mm/year). During a median follow-up of 45 months (IQR 27), 20 individuals (2.1%) developed HGD, or PC. Individuals with small cysts had a 1.5-fold lower risk of developing WF or HRS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.7 [0.5–1.0], p = 0.03) than those with larger cysts but a similar risk of developing HGD or PC (p > 0.05). Slow growth was protective against the development of WF or HRS (HR 0.4 [0.2–0.6], p < 0.001) and HGD or PC (HR 0.04 [95% CI 0.02–0.12], p < 0.001). Individuals with small, stable sized cysts without baseline WF or HRS did not have a higher risk of HGD or PC than the general population (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] 1.13 [95% CI 0.01–6.30]). Conclusion: Cyst size < 15 mm and growth rate < 2.5 mm/year appear to be “reassuring” features associated with a negligible risk of developing WF or HRS and HGD or PC. For cysts with these characteristics—and without baseline WF or HRS—less intensive surveillance (than currently recommended) or even cessation may be appropriate.