Guidelines for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change

Abstract

Changes have already been observed in a wide range of components of the Earth’s climate system (Garcia et al., 2014b), and ongoing changes are predicted, including in longterm climate patterns and trends, the magnitude and frequency of acute extreme weather events, and secondary impacts such as loss of sea ice and sea-level rise. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and ocean acidification accompany them. These changes are having far-reaching impacts on biodiversity (Thomas et al., 2004; Fischlin et al., 2007; IPCC, 2014), including at organismal, subpopulation, species and ecosystem levels. For some species, the net impacts have been positive (Fraser et al., 1992; Urban et al., 2007; Kearney & Porter, 2009), but for many more, the speed, magnitude and rate of change are having negative fitness consequences for individuals which can lead to local or even global extinction of species (Caswell et al., 2009; Jenouvrier et al., 2009; Hunter et al., 2010; Fordham et al., 2013a; Settele et al., 2014). Projections show that even under the most optimistic emissions scenarios, climate change impacts on biodiversity will be increasingly severe over the next century and beyond (IPCC, 2014). Suggested chapter citation (example) Huntley, B., Foden, W.B., Smith, A., Platts, P., Watson, J. and Garcia, R.A. (2016). Chapter 5. Using CCVAs and interpreting their results. In W.B. Foden and B.E. Young, editors. IUCN SSC Guidelines for Assessing Species’ Vulnerability to Climate Change. Version 1.0. Occasional Paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59. Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. pp 33–48.