Transitioning of older Australian women into and through the long-term care system: A cohort study using linked data

Abstract

Background: Over two-thirds of older Australians use different types/levels of aged care at some point in later life. Our aims were to estimate transitional probabilities and to identify risk factors influencing the movement between different levels of long-term care. Methods: The sample consisted of 9007 women from the 1921-26 birth cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Transitional probabilities between different levels of long-term care were estimated using a continuous-time Markov model. Results: An 11-fold transition rates ratio was observed for the movement from non-user to home and community care (HACC) versus non-user to residential aged care (RAC). The predicted probabilities of remaining in the non-user state, HACC, and RAC after 10 years from the baseline were.28,.24, and.11, respectively. While the corresponding probabilities of dying from these states were.36,.65, and.90. The risk of transitioning from the non-user state to either HACC or RAC was greater for participants who were older at baseline, widowed, living outside of major cities, having difficulties in managing income, or having chronic condition, poor/fair self-rated health, or lower SF-36 scores (p