ANALYSIS OF THE FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF THE AQUAPONICS (FISH FARMING AND HYDROPONICS) SYSTEM USING THE MONTE CARLO METHOD

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate a particular property in Brasília that uses the aquaponics system on a small production scale. The Monte Carlo method was used to estimate its financial feasibility and the probability of the production volume and, consequently, evaluate the risk of this undertaking. The data analyzed included fixed and variable costs, revenues and financial viability indicators, which are net present value (NPV), periodic economic benefit (PEB) and internal rate of return (IRR). It was identified in this research that the cost with the largest participation was the land acquisition, amounting to more than 60%. According to the survey, the venture showed a 56.69% probability to generate a NPV, PEB and IRR rate, respectively, of R$ 117,784.26, R$ 16,003.11 and 37%. The probability of occurrence of fish volume and plant production were, respectively, 1179.44 kg and 731.26 kg with 74.43% and 76.16%, presenting a probability greater than 50%, which is considered as more reliable than traditional analysis. Therefore, we can conclude that it is economically viable according to the NPV parameters, which was greater than zero, and the IRR, that was higher than the minimum rate of attractiveness.