Calculating age-specific prevalence rates of female genital mutilation / cutting (FGM/C) for use as an input variable in extrapolation calculations and as predictors of future prevalence in countries of origin

Abstract

This paper proposes a refined method for calculating age-specific prevalence rates of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C) to enhance the accuracy of estimates calculated using Yoder and Van Baelen’s Extrapolation-of-FGM/C-Countries-Prevalence-Data method. Previous studies, particularly in the United States, have faced limitations, including the failure to disaggregate prevalence data by age and overlooking historical trends. To address these limitations, this study outlines a comprehensive seven-step approach. Using Ethiopia as a case study, prevalence rates were calculated and aligned with target migrant population data. This involved adjusting age cohorts, extrapolating prevalence to younger age groups, and considering historical trends. Results demonstrate significant differences compared to previous estimates, indicating overestimation of girls at risk of FGM/C in some studies. The proposed method offers a standardized approach applicable beyond the United States, potentially improving estimates globally. By providing nuanced prevalence data, this method contributes to better understanding the true prevalence of FGM/C in migrant populations. This same method can also be used to predict future trends in FGM/C and other practices.