Do climate change expectations drive migration? Evidence from migration flows towards OECD countries

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a novel insight into the driving forces of migration towards OECD countries. In contrast to the existing literature, we show that not only does current temperature affect the decision to migrate towards OECD countries, but so too does expected temperature at origin. First, we find that expected temperature at origin in 2030 and 2050 significantly affects migration flows towards OECD countries today. This result holds even when we control for current income and temperature as well as expected income. Second, we find that the agricultural pathway is important for the migration decision. According to this theory, countries who rely more heavily on agricultural experience larger migration flows, because climatic conditions have a larger impact. In contrast to the related literature, we find that the expectation about climate and agricultural variables at origin matter.