PERBANDINGAN METODE ARIMA DAN EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT-WINTERS UNTUK PERAMALAN DATA KUNJUNGAN

Abstract

A visit to the creative economy park is a place designed using strategic objectives in collaborating technology capabilities, transferring information and knowledge, planting innovative high-tech companies and entrepreneurs, bringing up new technology industries in the creative economy business to drive economic development. Universitas AMIKOM Yogyakarta has been declared a creative economy park and is known as the Amikom Creative Economy Park (ACEP). ACEP includes several multimedia environments for targeting businesses, for example software development, film, television, games, radio, animation, advertising, investment advisory, and project design. The development of the number of visitors from year to year, predictions need to be made to support the planning and preparation process in receiving visits. The data used in this study are visitor data from January 2019 to December 2019. Analysis of visit prediction data using data mining is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing methods. The research resulted from prediction of the number of visit data for 2020 is more accurate using the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method with a MAPE value of 47,197 when compared to the ARIMA method with a MAPE value of 48,949 so that the MAPE value generated by the ARIMA method is smaller than the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method. The results of this study are to provide input in the form of predictions of the number of ACEP visitors in the coming year.