The Trajectory of Confidence: Experience, Certainty, and Consumer Choice

Abstract

Confidence has an important influence on consumer behavior. Beyond what consumers know or believe, the confidence with which they hold such knowledge or beliefs (i.e., how certain they feel) shapes their judgments, decisions, and actions. But how does confidence shift as consumers gain experience? And what are the consequences for consumer choice? A multimethod investigation combines computational linguistics, machine learning, and experiments to examine these questions. Analysis of 3.7 million reviews from almost 100,000 consumers spanning nearly 30 years reveals a common confidence trajectory. Across diverse product categories (e.g., wine, beer, cosmetics) there is a U-shaped relationship between experience and confidence. While gaining initial experience decreases confidence, eventually, with more experience, confidence rebounds. Further, feeling less confident leads consumers to avoid options associated with uncertainty and choose something different. This includes picking different products, avoiding brands associated with the uncertainty, and waiting longer to choose from those brands again. Taken together, these findings shed light on the evolution of confidence, how uncertainty shapes choice, and drivers of product switching and brand loyalty more generally.