Projections of alcohol consumption among the population of Russia

Abstract

The topic owes its relevance to the dual significance of alcohol production, distribution, and consumption for a nation’s social-economic development. The authors analyze and forecast changes in the volume and structure of alcohol consumption among the population of Russia and assess the relationship between alcohol consumption and prices in the country. The authors’ projections of alcohol consumption were produced using the statistical method of regression analysis. To assess the strength of the relationship between consumption and prices, the authors constructed relevant scatter plots and computed the coefficient of determination and the linear pair correlation coefficient. As a result, the authors detected a number of downward trends in and put together forecasts of the nation’s consumption of alcoholic products per capita in absolute alcohol, overall consumption of alcoholic products in physical terms, and consumption of particular types thereof (beer and beer-based beverages, vodka, spirit and liqueur products, wine products, including champagne and sparkling wine, and cognac and brandy spirits, including brandy and calvados). The authors are expecting no significant changes in the structure of the nation’s alcohol consumption. There is a very strong linear relationship between alcohol consumption and prices in Russia. With vodka, this relationship is reverse. However, the authors have found that the relationship between consumption and prices in terms of cognac, beer, and wine has changed from direct linear to reverse linear. Considering the rise in prices, the relationships detected substantiate the projected trend of alcohol consumption in Russia declining.