Domestic hard coal supplies to the energy sector: The impact of global coal prices

Abstract

The paper analyzes the impact of potential changes in the price relation between domestic and imported coal and its influence on the volume of coal imported to Poland. The study is carried out with the application of a computable model of the Polish energy system. The model reflects fundamental relations between coal suppliers (domestic coal mines, importers) and key coal consumers (power plants, combined heat and power plants, heat plants, industrial power plants). The model is run under thirteen scenarios, differentiated by the ratio of the imported coal price versus the domestic coal price for 2020–2030. The results of the scenario in which the prices of imported and domestic coal, expressed in PLN/GJ, are equal, indicate that the volume of supplies of imported coal is in the range of 8.3–11.5 million Mg (depending on the year). In the case of an increase in prices of imported coal with respect to the domestic one, supplies of imported coal are at the level of 0.4–4.1 million Mg (depending on the year). With a decrease in the price of imported coal, there is a gradual increase in the supply of coal imports. For the scenario in which a 30% lower imported coal price is assumed, the level of imported coal almost doubles (180%), while the supply from domestic mines is reduced by around 28%, when compared to the levels observed in the reference scenario. The obtained results also allow for the development of an analysis of the range of coal imports depending on domestic versus imported coal price relations in the form of cartograms.