Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential in China under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios

Abstract

The estimation of forest carbon sequestration and its economic value as a carbon sink are important elements of global carbon cycle research. In this study, based on the predicted forestland changes under the future shared socioeconomic pathways SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, and SSP5-RCP8.5, the growth equations of different tree species were fitted using forest inventory data, and the biomass conversion factor continuum function method was used to estimate forest vegetation carbon fixation at the national scale. The carbon sink potential of the forest ecosystems in 2020–2100 was estimated under the three scenarios. Under the three social scenarios, the fixed amount of forest carbon in China exhibits a significant upward trend. Forest area increases the most, and carbon sequestration increases the most rapidly under SSP1-RCP2.6. The carbon sequestration level in Southwest China is higher than in other parts of the country, and those in Northwest and East China are lower than the national average. In order to continuously improve the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystem resources in China, the following actions are recommended: strengthen the protection projects of natural forests in various regions, improve the level of forest management, and gradually achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in China.