Ability of residents to assess relative risk from tourists during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

This paper compares relative risk perceptions of residents to inbound tourists from countries with different COVID-19 profiles. Results suggest residents are able to distinguish between COVID-19 risks based on the incidence of COVID-19 in the tourists’ source country. Residents’ risk perceptions were better aligned with the absolute number of cases (ignoring population size) in tourists’ country of origin than with the number of COVID cases per capita. This was primarily influenced by China’s relatively large population. The results suggest people can accurately assess relative risk, especially when the media provides quality information (as was the case for COVID-19 cases). By examining perceptions of residents rather than tourists, this paper adds new insights into tourism outcomes of successful crisis management, especially in the context of public health disasters.