Condorcet's canal study: The beginnings of social impact assessment

Abstract

During 1775–76, the Marquis de Condorcet collected birth and death records, and related socio-economic information, in the vicinity of a proposed canal in the Somme valley, north of Paris. He put this information into a predictive model of the effects of canal seepage on mortality rates and made a number of recommendations. Condorcet's inquiry differed fundamentally from the informal forecasts that advisors historically provided the court. The selection of independent and dependent variables, the attempt to isolate the effects of canal seepage from other (largely socio-economic) causes of mortality, and the use of quantification marked a new application of scientific method to problems of public administration. This type of work is called “social impact assessment” (SIA) today. © 1989 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.