Techno-Economic Assessment and Capacity Optimization of Residential PV Self-Consumption Systems: An Approach Applied in Emerging Contexts

Abstract

This study proposes a comprehensive techno-economic methodology to assess the economic viability and optimal sizing of grid-connected residential photovoltaic (PV) self-consumption systems without storage in emerging economies. The model uses net present value (NPV) as the optimization criterion and estimates internal rate of return (IRR) and discounted payback time (DPBT) as complementary profitability indicators. It integrates hourly PV generation, synthesized hourly demand profiles, local tariff structures, surplus-energy remuneration, investment and operating costs, inflation, performance losses, and discount-rate assumptions, while explicitly accounting for context-specific limitations related to data availability, storage-free operation, and financing assumptions. The methodology is applied to 30 Colombian residential scenarios, covering five cities and six socioeconomic strata, and is complemented with a replicability case in Jaén, Spain. In Colombia, PV self-consumption is economically viable in all cases, but profitability is highly uneven: maximized NPV ranges from 2.8 € in the least favorable low-income case to 2816 € in the best high-income case, IRR ranges from 5.0% to 14.7%, and DPBT ranges from 8 to 24 years. From an energy-justice perspective, tariff subsidies improve affordability but may reduce PV attractiveness for low-income users, highlighting the need for capital grants, low-interest loans, or community solar schemes.