Increasing emergency number utilisation is not driven by low-acuity calls: an observational study of 1.5 million emergency calls (2018–2021) from Berlin

Abstract

Background: The Emergency Medical Service (EMS) in Germany is increasingly challenged by strongly rising demand. Speculations about a greater utilisation for minor cases have led to intensive media coverage, but empirical evidence is lacking. We investigated the development of low-acuity calls from 2018 to 2021 in the federal state of Berlin and its correlations with sociodemographic characteristics. Methods: We analysed over 1.5 million call documentations including medical dispatch codes, age, location and time using descriptive and inferential statistics and multivariate binary logistic regression. We defined a code list to classify low-acuity calls and merged the dataset with sociodemographic indicators and data on population density. Results: The number of emergency calls (phone number 112 in Germany) increased by 9.1% from 2018 to 2021; however, the proportion of low-acuity calls did not increase. The regression model shows higher odds of low-acuity for young to medium age groups (especially for age 0–9, OR 1.50 [95% CI 1.45–1.55]; age 10–19, OR 1.77 [95% CI 1.71–1.83]; age 20–29, OR 1.64 [95% CI 1.59–1.68] and age 30–39, OR 1.40 [95% CI 1.37–1.44]; p < 0.001, reference group 80–89) and for females (OR 1.12 [95% CI 1.1–1.13], p < 0.001). Odds were slightly higher for calls from a neighbourhood with lower social status (OR 1.01 per index unit increase [95% CI 1.0–1.01], p < 0.05) and at the weekend (OR 1.02 [95% CI 1.0–1.04, p < 0.05]). No significant association of the call volume with population density was detected. Conclusions: This analysis provides valuable new insights into pre-hospital emergency care. Low-acuity calls were not the primary driver of increased EMS utilisation in Berlin. Younger age is the strongest predictor for low-acuity calls in the model. The association with female gender is significant, while socially deprived neighbourhoods play a minor role. No statistically significant differences in call volume between densely and less densely populated regions were detected. The results can inform the EMS in future resource planning.