Are the current expectations for growing air travel demand realistic?

Abstract

Global air travel has reached 3.7 billion passengers in 2017 and is predicted to continue to grow at 4.7% per annum. Such forecasts fail to consider the rising cost of carbon and socio-economic declines due to climate change. Using three scenarios, this paper finds that air travel growth slows considerably, with the high mitigation scenario producing the relatively best outcome for the industry with 9.8 billion passengers in 2070. Low mitigation is the least favourable option in the long term, as emissions continue to grow rapidly, whilst demand turns negative in 2067, due to increasing economic damage and rising inequality. A counterfactual scenario reveals that only extremely optimistic assumptions produce high growth rates produced in the Boeing forecast.