Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii

Abstract

Tropical cyclones in the vicinity of Hawaii have resulted in great property damage. An estimate of the return periods of tropical cyclone intensities is of particular interest to governments, public interest groups, and private sectors. A dimensionless quantity called relative intensity (RI) is used to combine all available information about the tropical cyclone characteristics at different places and times. To make a satisfactory estimate of the return periods of tropical cyclone intensities, a large number of RIs are simulated by the Monte Carlo method based on the extreme value distribution. The return periods of RIs and the corresponding maximium wind speeds associated with tropical cyclones are then estimated by combining the information about the intensities and occurrences. Results show that the return periods of maximum wind speeds equal to or greater than 125, 110, 100, 80, 64, 50, and 34 kt are estimated to be 137, 59, 33, 12, 6.6, 4, and 3. 2 years, respectively. The Monte Carlo method is also used to estimate the confidence intervals of the return periods of tropical cyclone intensities. The sensitivity test is conducted by removing the portion of the data prior to satellite observations. For maximum wind speeds less than 80 kt, estimates of return periods from the shorter dataset (1970-95) are almost identical to those when the complete duration time series are used (1949-95).