Climate Drivers of Pine Shoot Beetle Outbreak Dynamics in Southwest China

Abstract

Outbreaks of pine shoot beetles (Tomicus spp.) have caused widespread tree mortality in Southwest China. However, the understanding of the role of climatic drivers in pine shoot beetle outbreaks is limited. This study aimed to characterize the relationships between climate variables and pine shoot beetle outbreaks in the forests of Yunnan pine (Pinus yunnanensis Franch) in Southwest China. The pine shoot beetle-infested total area from 2000 to 2017 was extracted from multi-data Landsat images and obtained from field survey plots. A temporal prediction model was developed by partial least squares regression. The results indicated that multi consecutive year droughts was the strongest predictor, as such a condition greatly reduced the tree resistance to the beetles. The beetle-infested total area increased with spring temperature, associated with a higher success rate of trunk colonization and accelerated larval development. Warmer temperatures and longer solar radiation duration promoted flight activity during the trunk transfer to the shoot period and allowed the completion of sister broods. Multi consecutive year droughts combined with the warmer temperatures and higher solar radiation duration could provide favorable conditions for shoot beetle outbreaks. Generally, identifying the climate variables that drive pine shoot beetle outbreaks could help improve current strategies for outbreak control.