Improved ANFIS model for forecasting Wuhan City Air Quality and analysis COVID-19 lockdown impacts on air quality

Abstract

In this study, we propose an improved version of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for forecasting the air quality index in Wuhan City, China. We propose a hybrid optimization method to improve ANFIS performance, called PSOSMA, using a new modified meta-heuristics (MH) algorithm, Slime mould algorithm (SMA), which is improved by using the particle swarm optimizer (PSO). The proposed PSOSMA-ANFIS has been trained with air quality index time series data of three years and has been applied to forecast the fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for one year. We also compared the proposed PSOSMA to other MH algorithms used to train ANFIS. We found that the modified ANFIS using PSOSMA achieved better performance than compared algorithms. Moreover, we analyzed the impacts of the lockdown of Wuhan City on the concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, CO2, and SO2. We compared the correspondence period with previous years, and we concluded that there are significant decreases in the concentrations of PM2.5, CO2, SO2, and NO2.