Effects of temperature and environmental covariates on the dynamic transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Zhejiang, China

Abstract

Background Studies have documented the impact of temperature on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD); however, no study has examined its impact on the transmissibility. Methods The longitudinal surveillance data of HFMD in Zhejiang Province during 2013-2019 were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. The incidence of HFMD was represented by daily case counts, and the transmissibility was quantified as the instantaneous reproductive number (Rt). The case time series design was applied to investigate the association between temperature and HFMD incidence at small-scale spatial patterns (i.e., townships). General additive model was further employed to analyze the effects of temperature and other driving factors on the transmissibility of HFMD. Separate models were also conducted for each city, along with seasonal and spatial stratified analysis. Results We observed an inverted V-shaped association between temperature and HFMD inci-dence, with the highest cumulative relative risk (RR: 3.81, 95% CI: 3.75-3.86) at 28°C compared to the reference temperature. Notably, we discovered that HFMD transmissibility exhibited a similar but more pronounced sensitivity to temperature changes, peaking at a lower temperature of 19.69°C. City-specific and stratified results were aligned with the overall provincial pattern. Additionally, other significant driving factors of HFMD trans-missibility included the depletion of susceptible individuals, school holidays, vaccination program, relative humidity, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Conclusion Nonlinear associations between temperature and HFMD incidence, as well as transmis-sibility, are observed. Other driving factors potentially contribute to changes in HFMD dynamic transmission. These findings underscore the importance of implementing targeted policies aimed at early intervention, particularly when HFMD transmissibility begins to reach its peak.