Resilience and tipping points in social-ecological systems of the southwestern Amazon: a participatory systems analysis

Abstract

Recent reports warn of the imminent surpassing of a tipping point that will transform the Amazon rainforest into a savannah. In the transboundary region shared by Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru (named the MAP region, an acronym for the states of Madre de Dios, Peru; Acre, Brazil; and Pando, Bolivia), this land-use conversion has been triggered by logging and farming, and recently intensified by the construction of a transcontinental highway. As economic incentives grow, so does social and environmental harm. We devised a participatory systems approach to evaluate and characterize the social-ecological system in a site in each of the three countries, and to identify the factors that may lead to the systems’ loss of resilience and eventual trespassing of tipping points. Methodologically, the approach combines stakeholder analysis, network analysis, and systems analysis, and includes transboundary research and locals’ participation as overarching premises adding plausibility and legitimacy to the findings. Results show that the three country-sites, despite their similarities, have evolved divergently into archetypal social-ecological systems, each confronting specific challenges, i.e., in Bolivia, dependence on the volatile commodity Brazil nut, and unstable politics, has weakened a previously stable and functional institutional landscape. In Brazil, the conversion of forests into pastures for cattle ranching remains the major peril, fueled by a steady market demand and, regardless of the party in power, insufficient restraining measures. In Peru, economic diversification has increased the system’s resilience as a whole, however authorities struggle to exert control over the economic activities, some of which are illegal.