Grey Forecasting of the Exports of Indonesian Palm Oil to India

Abstract

Palm oil is one of the leading export commodities of Indonesia. Knowing demand in advance can help policy-makers better prepare for the situation. India is one of the major importers of Indonesian palm oil. The study forecasted the Indonesian palm oil's exports to India from till 2025 using the grey forecasting model EGM (1,1, α, θ). The comparative analyses with Linear regression and exponential regression showed that the grey forecasting technique is relatively more accurate to forecast palm oil exports despite huge uncertainty in the data trend. The secondary data on Indonesian palm oil exports to India from 2011-2018 was obtained from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS). Mean absolute percentage error was used for error measurement. Despite uncertainty in data, the results show an increasing trend in palm oil exports.