Towards a wildfire vulnerability index using expert judgement

Abstract

Background: Climate change is expected to significantly change wildfire frequency and magnitude, which poses particular challenges for countries with limited experience in managing wildfires, such as Austria. Aims: To develop a vulnerability index, this study aims at weighting the characteristics of buildings and their surroundings (vulnerability indicators) by involving different national stakeholders (Austria) and international experts. Methods: Expert judgement and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were used for weighting indicators identified in a previous study through a literature review. Key results: The judgement of two expert groups regarding the weighting of the vulnerability indicators is compared. A wildfire vulnerability index that combines all the indicators into a single vulnerability index assigned to each building is introduced. Conclusions: The wildfire vulnerability index for buildings is a tool for decision-makers and other end users in Austria. The index sets the foundations for ongoing research in the field of vulnerability assessment and is based on trans-disciplinary approaches involving both academia and stakeholders. Implications: The index can be used to support decision-making, risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies but it can also guide local adaptation at the building level.