International incidence and mortality trends of liver cancer: A global profile

Abstract

We examined the global incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer, and evaluated the association between incidence/mortality and socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP]) using linear regression analysis. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of the trends was evaluated from join-point regression analysis. The global incidence of liver cancer varied widely by nine-fold, and was negatively correlated with HDI (men: R=-0.232, p=0.003; women: R=-0.369, p < 0.001) and GDP per capita (men: R=-0.164, p=0.036; women: R=-0.212, p=0.007). Its mortality showed a similarly negative correlation with both indices. The greatest incidence rise in men was observed in Poland (AAPC=17.5, 95% C.I.=5.6, 30.9) and Brazil (AAPC=13.2, 95% C.I.=5.9, 21.0), whereas Germany (AAPC=6.6, 95% C.I=2.0, 11.5) and Norway (AAPC=6.5, 95% C.I.=3.2, 10.0) had the greatest increase in women. The mortality rates paralleled the incidence rates in most countries. For mortality, Malta (AAPC=11.5, 95% C.I.=3.9, 19.8), Australia (AAPC=6.8, 95% C.I.=2.2, 11.5) and Norway (APCC=5.6, 95% C.I.=2.8, 8.5) reported the biggest increase among men; whilst Australia (AAPC=13.4, 95% C.I.=7.8, 19.4) and Singapore (AAPC=7.7, 95% C.I.=4.1, 11.5) showed the most prominent rise among women. These epidemiological data identified countries with potentially increasing trends of liver cancer for preventive actions.