CO2 emissions-energy consumption-militarisation-growth nexus in South Africa: evidence from novel dynamic ARDL simulations

Abstract

This study draws ardent attention to the Sustainable Development Goal 13 (climate change mitigation) of the United Nations by investigating the CO2 emissions-energy consumption-militarisation-economic growth nexus for South Africa (SA) from 1960 to 2019. The researcher applied frequency domain causality and the novel dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) simulation approaches to achieve the research objective. The main findings reflected that (i) there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables; (ii) there is no causality between militarisation and energy consumption; (iii) unidirectional causality runs from militarisation to economic growth; (iv) there is no causality between militarisation and CO2 emissions; and (v) unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption to economic growth. The dynamic ARDL simulations’ main results suggest that (i) in the short-run, a positive and insignificant relationship exist between militarisation and CO2 emissions. Conversely, a negative and significant relationship was recorded in the long-run. Thus, the treadmill theory of destruction is not valid for SA. (ii) In the short-run, economic growth has a positive and significant impact on CO2 emissions, while in the long-run, economic growth has a negative and significant impact on CO2 emissions. This implies the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis holds for SA. Overall, this research suggests a synergy between defence, energy, growth, and environmental policies in the short- and long-run to promote and maintain environmental quality in SA.