Can China’s food production capability meet her peak food demand in the future?

Abstract

With the increase of food demand in China and the growth of world population, whether China can meet her peak food demand in the future or not has become an issue worth study. By consolidating relevant factors of food demand in China, the peak food demand is predicted to occur in 2036, and the peak food demand amount is predicted at 758.17 million tons by factor and synthetical analysis. Through factor consolidation and scenario test, the following policy implications have been unearthed: China’s food production capability is crucial to maintain her future food security; improving the gain yield is the key method; monitoring China’s population change and formulating appropriate population policies are important; reducing food waste, curbing unreasonable consumption and promoting healthy and green diet are needed; construction of high standard farmland will be significant in maintaining the food security; and excessive stored food should be de-stocked in a timely manner.