Cost-effectiveness of measles control during elimination in Ontario, Canada, 2015

Abstract

Background: Given that measles is eliminated in Canada and measles immunisation coverage in Ontario is high, it has been questioned whether Ontario’s measles outbreak response is worthwhile. Aim: Our objective was to determine cost-effectiveness of measles containment protocols in Ontario from the healthcare payer perspective. Methods: We developed a decision-analysis model comparing Ontario’s measles containment strategy (based on actual 2015 outbreak data) with a hypothetical ‘modified response’. The modified scenario assumed 10% response costs with reduced case and contact tracing and no outbreak-associated vaccinations; it was based on local and provincial administrative and laboratory data and parameters from peer-reviewed literature. Short-and long-term health outcomes, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and costs discounted at 1.5%, were estimated. We conducted one-and two-way sensitivity analyses. Results: The 2015 outbreak in Ontario comprised 16 measles cases and an estimated 3,369 contacts. Predictive modelling suggested that the outbreak response prevented 16 outbreak-associated cases at a cost of CAD 1,213,491 (EUR 861,579). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was CAD 739,063 (EUR 524,735) per QALY gained for the outbreak response vs modified response. To meet the commonly accepted cost-effectiveness threshold of CAD 50,000 (EUR 35,500) per QALY gained, the outbreak response would have to prevent 94 measles cases. In sensitivity analyses, the findings were robust. Conclusions: Ontario’s measles outbreak response exceeds generally accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds and may not be the most efficient use of public health resources from a healthcare payer perspective. These findings should be balanced against benefits of increased vaccine coverage and maintaining elimination status.