Modelo de riesgos competitivos para deserción y graduación en estudiantes universitarios de programas de pregrado de una universidad privada de Medellín (Colombia)

Abstract

The aim of this research study was to analyze demographic, socioeconomic, and academic factors associated with dropout and graduation using a competing risks model. A total of 639 undergraduate students enrolled in 2009-2010 were included. Students were followed for 14 academic terms. The results showed that the cumulative probability of dropping out in the second academic term was 0.147. The probability of graduating within the time stipulated by the academic program was 0.187, and 0.328 a year later. The results showed that 49.0% of the students had obtained their degree by the 14xth term and that 35.4% had dropped out. Socioeconomic variables were associated with dropping out probability while demographic conditions were associated with graduation probability. However, academic variables had a significant effect on both outcomes. It is concluded that factors associated with dropout and graduation correspond to aspects that may be intervened by educational institutions to increase student retention and graduation.