Development and validation of a prediction model for the prolonged length of stay in Chinese patients with lower extremity atherosclerotic disease: A retrospective study

Abstract

Objectives This study aims to develop and internally validate a prediction model, which takes account of multivariable and comprehensive factors to predict the prolonged length of stay (LOS) in patients with lower extremity atherosclerotic disease (LEAD). Design This is a retrospective study. Setting China. Participants, primary and secondary outcomes Data of 1694 patients with LEAD from a retrospective cohort study between January 2014 and November 2021 were analysed. We selected nine variables and created the prediction model using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model after dividing the dataset into training and test sets in a 7:3 ratio. Prediction model performance was evaluated by calibration, discrimination and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The effectiveness of clinical utility was estimated using decision curve analysis. Results LASSO regression analysis identified age, gender, systolic blood pressure, Fontaine classification, lesion site, surgery, C reactive protein, prothrombin time international normalised ratio and fibrinogen as significant predictors for predicting prolonged LOS in patients with LEAD. In the training set, the prediction model showed good discrimination using a 500-bootstrap analysis and good calibration with an area under the receiver operating characteristic of 0.750. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for the training set had a p value of 0.354. The decision curve analysis showed that using the prediction model both in training and tests contributes to clinical value. Conclusion Our prediction model is a valuable tool using easily and routinely obtained clinical variables that could be used to predict prolonged LOS in patients with LEAD and help to better manage these patients in routine clinical practice.