Growing hydropower potential in China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming and beyond

Abstract

Renewable energy is the key to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and is one of the most concerning issues worldwide. China has the largest hydropower potential in the world. Yet, how China’s hydropower potential will change under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming and beyond remains unknown. Here, we find that China’s hydropower will increase greatly because of global warming. Gross hydropower potential (GHP) will increase by about one-half compared to the baseline period (1986-2015) under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming, and about two-thirds under 4.5 °C warming. The spatial and temporal changes in GHP will vary largely. GHP will increase relatively more in summer than in winter, and more in Southwest China than in other regions. Compared to GHP, increases in per-capita GHP will be relatively less under 1.5 °C (5%) and 2.0 °C (7%) warming, but of a similar magnitude under 4.5 °C warming (71%). This study provides important information on China’s hydropower potential changes under global warming.