Principal component analysis–artificial neural network-based model for predicting the static strength of seasonally frozen soils

Abstract

Seasonally frozen soils are exposed to freeze‒thaw cycles every year, leading to mechanical property deterioration. To reasonably describe the deterioration of soil under different conditions, machine learning (ML) technology is used to establish a prediction model for soil static strength. Six key influencing factors (moisture content, compaction degree, confining pressure, freezing temperature, number of freeze‒thaw cycles and thawing duration) are included in the modelling database. The accuracy of three typical ML algorithms (support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN)) is compared. The results show that the ANN outperforms the SVM and RF. Principal component analysis (PCA) is combined with the ANN, and the PCA–ANN algorithm is proposed, which further improves the prediction accuracy. The deterioration of soil static strength is systematically researched using the PCA–ANN algorithm. The results show that the soil static strength decreased considerably after the first several freeze‒thaw cycles before the strength plateau occurred, and the strength reduction increased significantly with increasing moisture content and compaction degree. The PCA–ANN model can generate a reasonable prediction for the static strength or other soil properties of seasonally frozen soil, which will provide a scientific reference for practical engineering.