Analysis of misdiagnosed or delayed-diagnosed Leprosy bacillus infection from 1990 to 2020 with a prophet time series prediction in Hubei Province, China

Abstract

To analyze the misdiagnosis or delayed diagnosis of leprosy in Hubei Province, China during the past 30 years, which can provide a scientific basis for improving the prevention and treatment of leprosy by proposing targeted intervention measures. A retrospective study was conducted to compile 161 cases of misdiagnosed or delayed diagnosis of leprosy in Hubei Province during 1990 to 2020 from the National Leprosy Prevention and Control Management Information System and the background information of regional leprosy control centers in Hubei Province. Among 161 study subjects, the shortest delay period was 25.30 months for cases aged 15 to 20 years, the longest delay period was 67.09 months for cases aged 51 to 60 years, the shortest delay period was 35.33 months for type TN cases, and the longest delay period was 75.17 months for type I cases. There were 71 cases (44.10%) misdiagnosed, and the top 5 misdiagnosed disease names were rash 23 cases (32.39%). Top 5 misdiagnosed cases were rash 23 (32.39%), rheumatism 10 (14.08%), skin ulceration 9 (12.68%), dermatitis 9 (12.68%), neuritis 9 (12.68%). In the prophet prediction, the overall trend of leprosy misdiagnosis was increasing and within 1 year the number is fluctuant. The training of medical personnel at all levels on leprosy prevention and treatment should be strengthened, and the public awareness of leprosy prevention and treatment should be enhanced.