Optimal body mass normalization of power output for accurate prediction of estimated cycling performance over complex time-trial courses

Abstract

Introduction: Power profiling is widely used in cycling performance analysis, but both absolute and mass-normalized power outputs have limitations as performance indicators, as they neglect external factors such as terrain, wind, aerodynamic drag, and pacing strategy. To address these limitations, this study introduced a numerical method to quantify how external forces acting on the cyclist influence the conversion of power output into race velocity. Thus, the study aimed to enable accurate prediction of cycling performance based on estimated mean power output over complex time-trial courses. Methods: Time-trial performances of five elite-level road cyclist profiles—a sprinter, climber, all-rounder, general classification (GC) contender, and a time trialist—were estimated using the power-duration relationship and previously published normative data. These performance estimates were applied to both simplified hypothetical courses and complex real-world time-trial courses. Optimal mass exponents for the power-to-mass ratio were determined based on the estimated average speeds over the respective course sections, cyclist morphology, and external factors such as gradient and wind velocity. Results: Across two recent Grand Tour individual time-trial courses, stage 21 of the 2024 Tour de France and stage 7 of the 2024 Giro d’Italia, the duration-weighted optimally mass-normalized power output metrics were (Formula presented.) and (Formula presented.), respectively. These metrics accurately predicted the estimated performances of the five defined cyclist profiles ((Formula presented.) for both). Discussion: The results indicate that the duration-weighted optimal mass exponents for the power-to-mass ratio are course-specific. By deriving optimal mass exponents across various modeled courses and wind conditions, the study was able to precisely quantify the influence of road gradient, headwind speed, and bicycle mass on the conversion of power output relative to body mass into speed. Further research is needed to validate the presented method for determining optimal mass exponents in real-world performance settings.